Climate change is affecting global food systems in profound ways. What external factors are contributing to the volatility in the cocoa market?
Pituthuvi: “Market headwinds such as drastic weather changes, geopolitical tensions, and tariffs have disrupted food production around the world. Among the many commodities impacted, cocoa production stands out as particularly vulnerable to these shifts in climate and market dynamics.”
Cocoa production stands out as particularly vulnerable.
How is the global cocoa market expected to grow, and what are the major regions involved in its supply and demand?
Pituthuvi: According to Expert Market Research, the cocoa industry is expected to reach USD 42.26 billion by 2034, largely due to high consumption in both the food & beverage and cosmetics sectors. About 70% of global cocoa comes from West and Central Africa, while Europe leads in chocolate consumption and import. This makes it essential to maintain a sustainable, long-term supply-demand relationship between these two regions.
Europe consumes the most chocolate, Africa grows most of the cocoa. Sustainability must bridge that divide.
How is the push for more cocoa affecting the environment?
Pituthuvi: To meet the surge in global demand, farmers are expanding their plantations, often by clearing forests, which contributes to major deforestation. In response, the European Commission has taken action with the EU Deforestation-Free Regulation (EUDR). By December 2026, large and medium-sized companies importing cocoa into the EU must prove their products do not come from deforested land. Smaller enterprises have until 2026 to comply.
The EUDR marks a major shift:
sustainability is no longer optional, it’s regulatory.
How are cocoa companies addressing these new pressures and sustainability goals?
Pituthuvi: Multinational traders now face pressure to manage both environmental risks and socio-economic challenges affecting producers. A big part of the solution lies in technology, specifically, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) in agriculture. In fact, the agricultural AI sector is forecasted to grow by USD 4.7 billion by 2028. AI-powered tools can help monitor soil conditions, predict yields, and trace supply chains with unprecedented precision.
How does AI translate to impact on the ground for farmers?
Pituthuvi: It’s starts with implementing digital solutions right from the farm. By providing comprehensive training to individual farmers, equipping them with the necessary knowledge to effectively use relevant software, and ensuring they have access to up-to-date market information and pricing for their products. Such initiatives empower farmers, enabling them to make informed decisions and secure fair value for their cocoa.
Digital solutions empower farmers to be data-driven
and not just labor-driven.
Who needs to be involved to make these strategies work?
Pituthuvi: Success depends on collaboration. Farmers, researchers, software developers, policymakers, and companies with traceability requirements must work together. Leadership teams should ensure AI and digital innovation are meaningfully integrated across their organisations. By aligning technology, policy, and farming practices, the industry can strengthen profitability while safeguarding the planet.
The future of cocoa depends on collective innovation: from bean to bar.
So, what’s your outlook for the cocoa industry in the coming decade?
Pituthuvi: If we can align sustainability goals with technological innovation, the cocoa sector can thrive: economically, socially, and environmentally. It’s about building resilience: ensuring cocoa remains a source of livelihood, not a casualty of climate change.
